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Greetings from Chatham County, North Carolina. Tell us what you think.
Friday, October 01, 2004
Dr. Miley Cautions Against Newland's Projected SGR
Newland's projected student generation rate (SGR) for Briar Chapel is dominated by homes outside of Chatham County, and that's a problem. In fact, most of the homes used in Briar Chapel's fiscal analysis were from Wake County, where market values and demographic trends may lead to dramatically different SGRs than in Chatham Country.
Even Dr. Miley, Newland's consultant and author of their fiscal impact analysis, warns against using data from neighboring counties when deterinimg SGR values. What's strange though, is that he issues that warning in that same Briar Chapel fiscal impact study, just prior to making his own SGR projections from nine different counties.
When criticizing Tischler's 1996 study of Chatham County's SGRs, Miley warns that Tischler's study is comprised of homes in two counties, Chatham and Orange:
In Appendix A of the Fiscal Impact Study, wherein Miley describes his methodology for determining an SGR for Briar Chapel, we find five different tables of data. Each table determines an SGR based upon different Census Block Groups in a nine county area, and each table uses Census block groups with different ranges of median housing values. The following table details the number of Census block groups from each county for each table of Miley's data.
Note that Chatham County accounts for a measly two census tracts (2.3%) out of the 86 used in the study, while 55 tracts (64%) are located in Wake County. So, I suggest we best heed Dr. Miley's advice and use caution when relying on Newland's projected SGR for Briar Chapel.
Even Dr. Miley, Newland's consultant and author of their fiscal impact analysis, warns against using data from neighboring counties when deterinimg SGR values. What's strange though, is that he issues that warning in that same Briar Chapel fiscal impact study, just prior to making his own SGR projections from nine different counties.
When criticizing Tischler's 1996 study of Chatham County's SGRs, Miley warns that Tischler's study is comprised of homes in two counties, Chatham and Orange:
Although Chatham and Orange counties are contiguous, there are many differences in the two counties, and caution should be used when relying on SGRs generated from these combined counties to estimate impacts for specific counties.Caution, indeed, Dr. Miley, for you made a much graver mistake in your own study. If you warn us not to use data from two counties, what shall we make of your own nine county study?
(pg 2, Appendix A of Fiscal Impact Analysis of The Briar Chapel Development)
In Appendix A of the Fiscal Impact Study, wherein Miley describes his methodology for determining an SGR for Briar Chapel, we find five different tables of data. Each table determines an SGR based upon different Census Block Groups in a nine county area, and each table uses Census block groups with different ranges of median housing values. The following table details the number of Census block groups from each county for each table of Miley's data.
| County | Table 2 ($250K - $340K) | Table 3 ($200K - $249K) | Table 4 ($250K - 299K) | Table 5 ($300K - $350K) | Table 6 ($350K - $770K) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alamance | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chatham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Durham | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Harnett | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moore | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Orange | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Randolph | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wake | 15 | 27 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Total | 27 | 44 | 19 | 12 | 11 |
Note that Chatham County accounts for a measly two census tracts (2.3%) out of the 86 used in the study, while 55 tracts (64%) are located in Wake County. So, I suggest we best heed Dr. Miley's advice and use caution when relying on Newland's projected SGR for Briar Chapel.
